We've seen this movie

 I'm sure this will be an unpopular post, but sometimes I cannot help but point out the obvious.

When I listen to folks talk about "the metaverse" I cannot help but think that we've seen this movie before, and we know how it ends.

Sure... depending on your perspective, at present "the metaverse" is largely (depending on who you are) either a concept from a sci-fi book or an opportunity to describe an as-yet imaginary future state. But that isn't what I'm talking about here.

So what am I talking about? In this case I'm talking about online services. I'm talking about AOL. I'm talking about Prodigy and CompuServe and eWorld and Bix and Boston CitiNet and Delphi and The WELL. These were all proprietary online systems with no interoperability which required high and often extraordinary Capex budgets.

For those who are not aware of the history here - these online services should now be seen as a temporary stop gap solution which vanished the moment that "online" became the set of shared protocols now called "The Web." They thrived in the moment in time between when Vint Cerf and Bob Kahn invented TCP in 1974 and when Tim Berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web in 1991.

Right now, when you talk to folks who are building or conceiving early "metaverse" stuff it all sounds strikingly familiar to anyone who worked with online products in the late 1980s and early 1990s. I once worked for someone who had been an early executive at both CompuServe and AOL -- and I spent a lot of time working with AOL, eWorld, and The WELL in the early 90s. The language being used by "metaverse" folks - the ideas being designed - the business models being discussed - and the systems being developed all feel exactly like the long-dead online services.

And we all saw how that particular movie ended.

Cheap open-protocol based and interoperable websites replaced expensive proprietary and siloed online services. Innovation exploded. Billions of dollars were made as Web 0.1 became Web 1.0. And millions of AOL install CDs were tossed in landfills. At this point how many of you even remember Prodigy much less eWorld?

I cannot wait to see what people eventually create with the metaverse protocol stack that will emerge in time. I think the integration of spatial computing and a metaverse protocol stack will deliver extraordinary opportunities and will likely change the world in profound ways. 

But when I hear about people creating "their own metaverse" and when I see all of the incredibly expensive proprietary closed systems being built all I can see is the coming metaverse protocol stack and a future of ghost town "metaverses" with virtual tumbleweeds rolling past, unseen by anyone.

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