Plan B

Every company right now has an evolving plan for what to do once the economy "re-opens." Most of the plans I've seen assume some sort of return to normalcy. Others assume a "New Normal" emerges this year.

What nobody seems to be considering is what they will do if things don't return to Normal this year (new or otherwise). What nobody seems to be considering is that there is a very plausible and highly likely scenario where we don't get any form of stable "Normal" for three years.

If I were in Corporate Strategy leadership at a company right now, I'd have a Plan B in the works. I'd have a strategy for the scenario where we see incredible instability and continued outbreaks along with periodic social isolating and the resulting economic disruption for three years.

Because if our hopes and wishes are insufficient, and if the magical thinking of our government turns out to be less than what we really need, then it's highly likely that we will not see a widespread vaccine for 2.5 years. And if we're honest with ourselves right now, we're unlikely to ever get to the needed testing volume without some serious breakthrough. And without a vaccine or widespread testing, there is no stabilization.

So in other words.... Your current strategy and plan likely relies upon hopes, wishes, magical thinking and an unexpected breakthrough. I've met people like that... they have a system for beating the Lottery. Is that how you want to run your company?

I'm not saying you shouldn't plan for a 2020 New Normal. Of course you should. Dreams do come true. But if you're not also building out a 3-year plan that assumes no short-term reset or stability - you're betting your business on your super clever Lottery-beating scheme.

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